The MetroFuture plan is built on extensive technical analysis. MAPC created the first integrated multidisciplinary model of development in the region, and used it to develop and quantitatively analyze alternative patterns of future growth. The model, developed using a computer program called Community Viz, links population, housing, employment, land use, water demand, and many other factors in a fully integrated and dynamic representation of the region’s future. Key elements of the model include:

Demographic projections, based on birth and death rates (by age and race) and in- and out-migration rates (including international immigration.)

Population Projection by Age and Municipality, Current Trends and MetroFuture.xls

Methodology of Current Trends Projection.doc

Employment projections, based on national growth projections by employment sector and capture rate estimates for Eastern Massachusetts, as well as each community’s share of our recent growth. Labor demand was estimated based on current region-specific staffing patterns for each sector.

Employment Projections, Current Trends and MetroFuture.xls

Labor supply, modeled on a regional basis by applying age, race, and gender-specific educational attainment and labor force participation rates to the projected population.

Land use, initially modeled by allocating municipal-level population and employment projections to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) within each community, based on local land use trends, vacant developable land (accounting for wetlands and other constraints), redevelopment opportunities, and two rounds of community comments in 2005.

Acres of Buildable No Wetlands, Current Trends and MetroFuture.xls

Open space resources, identified using land use maps, protected open space parcel data, the Massachusetts Land Conservation Plan, National Resource Conservation Service soil data, and various other environmental resource layers from MassGIS.

Housing supply, projected in eight basic housing types, ranging from single family homes on 1-plus acre lots to multifamily buildings with more than 50 units. Current Trends housing projections were based largely on existing zoning (with some allowance for variances and Comprehensive Permits), while existing zoning was not a constraint on the alternative scenarios.

Housing Type Projections, Current Trends and MetroFuture.xls

Water demand, based on existing “baseline” demand and standard assumptions about the per-capita and per-employee (by sector) consumption for new growth.

Municipal Finance, based on recent trends in revenue from various sources (state aid, property tax, other local revenue), and per-capita expenditures in ten spending categories.

Transportation modeling was conducted primarily by the Central Transportation Planning Staff (CTPS), using the EMME2 model that estimates trip generation, mode split, vehicle miles travel, congestion, and air quality indicators. EMME2 results were supplemented by regional-level estimates from the Community Viz model.

Transportation Projections, Current Trends and MetroFuture.xls

Energy Consumption, based on per unit energy consumption for heating, water heating, appliances, lighting, and other uses for various housing types.

The Current Trends scenario was based on continuation of recent trends in each of these areas; the alternative scenarios, including MetroFuture, were based on different assumptions about the distribution of growth, the type of alternative housing, per-capita water consumption, and various other important regional drivers. MAPC’s conducted careful TAZ-level review of the housing and employment projections to ensure their consistency with MetroFuture principles. In May 2007, MAPC distributed the TAZ-level MetroFuture projections to each municipality in the MAPC region and to neighboring Regional Planning Agencies. This third round of community comments was intended as a “reality check,” by asking for information about recent or imminent developments. Over 50% of MAPC’s member municipalities responded to this request for information, and their responses are largely reflected in the final MetroFuture projections.