Even with large growth in high skill, high education jobs, the region’s economy would still need less-skilled labor for many positions: 22,000 new jobs might not require even a high school diploma. The educational improvements described in Goals 29 & 37 would provide more than 200,000 of the region’s residents with better education and training. It would also increase the size of the labor force by 32,000 workers, since workers with higher educational attainment tend to have higher labor force participation rates. But as people gain a high school diploma or advanced training, fewer low skill workers are available to the retail, hospitality, and service industries. Assistance and reform, including ESOL training, childcare supports, CORI reform, and transportation, would help 41,000 people to join the labor force; more than 90% of these workers would have a high school diploma or less.

These efforts would also reduce disparity of labor force participation by race and education. The gap between Black and Hispanic labor force participation rates and Regional labor force participation rate is 4% for people without a high school diploma; 8% for high school graduates, and increases to 16% for graduate degrees. MetroFuture would close the gap to 1% for less than high school; 5% for high school; and 11% at the graduate degree level.

If Current Trends continue, low skill workers will exceed available jobs, and labor force participation will generally decline, falling from 79% to 76% for all working age adults, with the fastest declines among lower skill levels (from 63% to 59% for workers without a diploma).

Objectives:

• Labor force participation rates for Blacks and Hispanics will increase by at least 4% overall (from 67% to at least 71%), with the largest gains in cohorts without a high school diploma (from 59% to at least 67%.)
• Labor force participation rates for Blacks and Hispanics will be within 9% of regional average labor force participation rates.
• There will be decreasing disparity of unemployment by race and by education.